[Discussion] An Unnecessary War

Mon, 13 Jan 2003 08:36:31 -0600

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An Unnecessary War
 <http://www.foreignpolicy.com/wwwboard/walts.html>
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/wwwboard/walts.html

In the full-court press for war with Iraq, the Bush administration deems
Saddam Hussein reckless, ruthless, and not fully rational. Such a man, when
mixed with nuclear weapons, is too unpredictable to be prevented from
threatening the United States, the hawks say. But scrutiny of his past
dealings with the world shows that Saddam, though cruel and calculating, is
eminently deterrable.

By <http://www.foreignpolicy.com/wwwboard/walts.html#bio#bio> John J.
Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt
<http://www.foreignpolicy.com/wwwboard/walts.html#bio#bio> 
Should the United States invade Iraq and depose Saddam Hussein? If the
United States is already at war with Iraq when this article is published,
the immediate cause is likely to be Saddam's failure to comply with the new
U.N. inspections regime to the Bush administration's satisfaction. But this
failure is not the real reason Saddam and the United States have been on a
collision course over the past year.

The deeper root of the conflict is the U.S. position that Saddam must be
toppled because he cannot be deterred from using weapons of mass destruction
(WMD). Advocates of preventive war use numerous arguments to make their
case, but their trump card is the charge that Saddam's past behavior proves
he is too reckless, relentless, and aggressive to be allowed to possess WMD,
especially nuclear weapons. They sometimes admit that war against Iraq might
be costly, might lead to a lengthy U.S. occupation, and might complicate
U.S. relations with other countries. But these concerns are eclipsed by the
belief that the combination of Saddam plus nuclear weapons is too dangerous
to accept. For that reason alone, he has to go. 

<https://www.kable.com/pub/frnp/newsubs.asp> 
Even many opponents of preventive war seem to agree deterrence will not work
in Iraq. Instead of invading Iraq and overthrowing the regime, however,
these moderates favor using the threat of war to compel Saddam to permit new
weapons inspections. Their hope is that inspections will eliminate any
hidden WMD stockpiles and production facilities and ensure Saddam cannot
acquire any of these deadly weapons. Thus, both the hard-line preventive-war
advocates and the more moderate supporters of inspections accept the same
basic premise: Saddam Hussein is not deterrable, and he cannot be allowed to
obtain a nuclear arsenal.

One problem with this argument: It is almost certainly wrong. The belief
that Saddam's past behavior shows he cannot be contained rests on distorted
history and faulty logic. In fact, the historical record shows that the
United States can contain Iraq effectively-even if Saddam has nuclear
weapons-just as it contained the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Regardless of whether Iraq complies with U.N. inspections or what the
inspectors find, the campaign to wage war against Iraq rests on a flimsy
foundation. 
Is Saddam a Serial Aggressor?
Those who call for preventive war begin by portraying Saddam as a serial
aggressor bent on dominating the Persian Gulf. The war party also contends
that Saddam is either irrational or prone to serious miscalculation, which
means he may not be deterred by even credible threats of retaliation.
Kenneth Pollack, former director for gulf affairs at the National Security
Council and a proponent of war with Iraq, goes so far as to argue that
Saddam is "unintentionally suicidal." 

The facts, however, tell a different story. Saddam has dominated Iraqi
politics for more than 30 years. During that period, he started two wars
against his neighbors-Iran in 1980 and Kuwait in 1990. Saddam's record in
this regard is no worse than that of neighboring states such as Egypt or
Israel, each of which played a role in starting several wars since 1948.
Furthermore, a careful look at Saddam's two wars shows his behavior was far
from reckless. Both times, he attacked because Iraq was vulnerable and
because he believed his targets were weak and isolated. In each case, his
goal was to rectify Iraq's strategic dilemma with a limited military
victory. Such reasoning does not excuse Saddam's aggression, but his
willingness to use force on these occasions hardly demonstrates that he
cannot be deterred. 
The Iran-Iraq War, 1980-88
Iran was the most powerful state in the Persian Gulf during the 1970s. Its
strength was partly due to its large population (roughly three times that of
Iraq) and its oil reserves, but it also stemmed from the strong support the
shah of Iran received from the United States. Relations between Iraq and
Iran were quite hostile throughout this period, but Iraq was in no position
to defy Iran's regional dominance. Iran put constant pressure on Saddam's
regime during the early 1970s, mostly by fomenting unrest among Iraq's
sizable Kurdish minority. Iraq finally persuaded the shah to stop meddling
with the Kurds in 1975, but only by agreeing to cede half of the Shatt
al-Arab waterway to Iran, a concession that underscored Iraq's weakness. 

It is thus not surprising that Saddam welcomed the shah's ouster in 1979.
Iraq went to considerable lengths to foster good relations with Iran's
revolutionary leadership. Saddam did not exploit the turmoil in Iran to gain
strategic advantage over his neighbor and made no attempt to reverse his
earlier concessions, even though Iran did not fully comply with the terms of
the 1975 agreement. Ruhollah Khomeini, on the other hand, was determined to
extend his revolution across the Islamic world, starting with Iraq. By late
1979, Tehran was pushing the Kurdish and Shiite populations in Iraq to
revolt and topple Saddam, and Iranian operatives were trying to assassinate
senior Iraqi officials. Border clashes became increasingly frequent by April
1980, largely at Iran's instigation.

Facing a grave threat to his regime, but aware that Iran's military
readiness had been temporarily disrupted by the revolution, Saddam launched
a limited war against his bitter foe on September 22, 1980. His principal
aim was to capture a large slice of territory along the Iraq-Iran border,
not to conquer Iran or topple Khomeini. "The war began," as military analyst
Efraim Karsh writes, "because the weaker state, Iraq, attempted to resist
the hegemonic aspirations of its stronger neighbor, Iran, to reshape the
regional status quo according to its own image." 

Iran and Iraq fought for eight years, and the war cost the two antagonists
more than 1 million casualties and at least $150 billion. Iraq received
considerable outside support from other countries-including the United
States, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and France-largely because these states were
determined to prevent the spread of Khomeini's Islamic revolution. Although
the war cost Iraq far more than Saddam expected, it also thwarted Khomeini's
attempt to topple him and dominate the region. War with Iran was not a
reckless adventure; it was an opportunistic response to a significant
threat.

The Gulf War, 1990-91
But what about Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990? Perhaps the earlier
war with Iran was essentially defensive, but surely this was not true in the
case of Kuwait. Doesn't Saddam's decision to invade his tiny neighbor prove
he is too rash and aggressive to be trusted with the most destructive
weaponry? And doesn't his refusal to withdraw, even when confronted by a
superior coalition, demonstrate he is "unintentionally suicidal"?

The answer is no. Once again, a careful look shows Saddam was neither
mindlessly aggressive nor particularly reckless. If anything, the evidence
supports the opposite conclusion.

Saddam's decision to invade Kuwait was primarily an attempt to deal with
Iraq's continued vulnerability. Iraq's economy, badly damaged by its war
with Iran, continued to decline after that war ended. An important cause of
Iraq's difficulties was Kuwait's refusal both to loan Iraq $10 billion and
to write off debts Iraq had incurred during the Iran-Iraq War. Saddam
believed Iraq was entitled to additional aid because the country helped
protect Kuwait and other Gulf states from Iranian expansionism. To make
matters worse, Kuwait was overproducing the quotas set by the Organization
of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which drove down world oil prices and
reduced Iraqi oil profits. Saddam tried using diplomacy to solve the
problem, but Kuwait hardly budged. As Karsh and fellow Hussein biographer
Inari Rautsi note, the Kuwaitis "suspected that some concessions might be
necessary, but were determined to reduce them to the barest minimum." 
Saddam reportedly decided on war sometime in July 1990, but before sending
his army into Kuwait, he approached the United States to find out how it
would react. In a now famous interview with the Iraqi leader, U.S.
Ambassador April Glaspie told Saddam, "[W]e have no opinion on the Arab-Arab
conflicts, like your border disagreement with Kuwait." The U.S. State
Department had earlier told Saddam that Washington had "no special defense
or security commitments to Kuwait." The United States may not have intended
to give Iraq a green light, but that is effectively what it did.

Saddam invaded Kuwait in early August 1990. This act was an obvious
violation of international law, and the United States was justified in
opposing the invasion and organizing a coalition against it. But Saddam's
decision to invade was hardly irrational or reckless. Deterrence did not
fail in this case; it was never tried. 

But what about Saddam's failure to leave Kuwait once the United States
demanded a return to the status quo ante? Wouldn't a prudent leader have
abandoned Kuwait before getting clobbered? With hindsight, the answer seems
obvious, but Saddam had good reasons to believe hanging tough might work. It
was not initially apparent that the United States would actually fight, and
most Western military experts predicted the Iraqi army would mount a
formidable defense. These forecasts seem foolish today, but many people
believed them before the war began. 

Once the U.S. air campaign had seriously damaged Iraq's armed forces,
however, Saddam began searching for a diplomatic solution that would allow
him to retreat from Kuwait before a ground war began. Indeed, Saddam made
clear he was willing to pull out completely. Instead of allowing Iraq to
withdraw and fight another day, then U.S. President George H.W. Bush and his
administration wisely insisted the Iraqi army leave its equipment behind as
it withdrew. As the administration had hoped, Saddam could not accept this
kind of deal.

Saddam undoubtedly miscalculated when he attacked Kuwait, but the history of
warfare is full of cases where leaders have misjudged the prospects for war.
No evidence suggests Hussein did not weigh his options carefully, however.
He chose to use force because he was facing a serious challenge and because
he had good reasons to think his invasion would not provoke serious
opposition. 

Nor should anyone forget that the Iraqi tyrant survived the Kuwait debacle,
just as he has survived other threats against his regime. He is now
beginning his fourth decade in power. If he is really "unintentionally
suicidal," then his survival instincts appear to be even more finely honed.

History provides at least two more pieces of evidence that demonstrate
Saddam is deterrable. First, although he launched conventionally armed Scud
missiles at Saudi Arabia and Israel during the Gulf War, he did not launch
chemical or biological weapons at the coalition forces that were decimating
the Iraqi military. Moreover, senior Iraqi officials-including Deputy Prime
Minister Tariq Aziz and the former head of military intelligence, General
Wafiq al-Samarrai-have said that Iraq refrained from using chemical weapons
because the Bush Sr. administration made ambiguous but unmistakable threats
to retaliate if Iraq used WMD. Second, in 1994 Iraq mobilized the remnants
of its army on the Kuwaiti border in an apparent attempt to force a
modification of the U.N. Special Commission's (UNSCOM) weapons inspection
regime. But when the United Nations issued a new warning and the United
States reinforced its troops in Kuwait, Iraq backed down quickly. In both
cases, the allegedly irrational Iraqi leader was deterred.

Saddam's Use of Chemical Weapons
Preventive-war advocates also use a second line of argument. They point out
that Saddam has used WMD against his own people (the Kurds) and against Iran
and that therefore he is likely to use them against the United States. Thus,
U.S. President George W. Bush recently warned in Cincinnati that the Iraqi
WMD threat against the United States "is already significant, and it only
grows worse with time." The United States, in other words, is in imminent
danger. 

Saddam's record of chemical weapons use is deplorable, but none of his
victims had a similar arsenal and thus could not threaten to respond in
kind. Iraq's calculations would be entirely different when facing the United
States because Washington could retaliate with WMD if Iraq ever decided to
use these weapons first. Saddam thus has no incentive to use chemical or
nuclear weapons against the United States and its allies-unless his survival
is threatened. This simple logic explains why he did not use WMD against
U.S. forces during the Gulf War and has not fired chemical or biological
warheads at Israel.

Furthermore, if Saddam cannot be deterred, what is stopping him from using
WMD against U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf, which have bombed Iraq
repeatedly over the past decade? The bottom line: Deterrence has worked well
against Saddam in the past, and there is no reason to think it cannot work
equally well in the future. 

President Bush's repeated claim that the threat from Iraq is growing makes
little sense in light of Saddam's past record, and these statements should
be viewed as transparent attempts to scare Americans into supporting a war.
CIA Director George Tenet flatly contradicted the president in an October
2002 letter to Congress, explaining that Saddam was unlikely to initiate a
WMD attack against any U.S. target unless Washington provoked him. Even if
Iraq did acquire a larger WMD arsenal, the United States would still retain
a massive nuclear retaliatory capability. And if Saddam would only use WMD
if the United States threatened his regime, then one wonders why advocates
of war are trying to do just that.

Hawks do have a fallback position on this issue. Yes, the United States can
try to deter Saddam by threatening to retaliate with massive force. But this
strategy may not work because Iraq's past use of chemical weapons against
the Kurds and Iran shows that Saddam is a warped human being who might use
WMD without regard for the consequences. 

Unfortunately for those who now favor war, this argument is difficult to
reconcile with the United States' past support for Iraq, support that
coincided with some of the behavior now being invoked to portray him as an
irrational madman. The United States backed Iraq during the 1980s-when
Saddam was gassing Kurds and Iranians-and helped Iraq use chemical weapons
more effectively by providing it with satellite imagery of Iranian troop
positions. The Reagan administration also facilitated Iraq's efforts to
develop biological weapons by allowing Baghdad to import disease-producing
biological materials such as anthrax, West Nile virus, and botulinal toxin.
A central figure in the effort to court Iraq was none other than current
U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who was then President Ronald
Reagan's special envoy to the Middle East. He visited Baghdad and met with
Saddam in 1983, with the explicit aim of fostering better relations between
the United States and Iraq. In October 1989, about a year after Saddam
gassed the Kurds, President George H.W. Bush signed a formal national
security directive declaring, "Normal relations between the United States
and Iraq would serve our longer-term interests and promote stability in both
the Gulf and the Middle East." 

If Saddam's use of chemical weapons so clearly indicates he is a madman and
cannot be contained, why did the United States fail to see that in the
1980s? Why were Rumsfeld and former President Bush then so unconcerned about
his chemical and biological weapons? The most likely answer is that U.S.
policymakers correctly understood Saddam was unlikely to use those weapons
against the United States and its allies unless Washington threatened him
directly. The real puzzle is why they think it would be impossible to deter
him today.
Saddam With Nukes
The third strike against a policy of containment, according to those who
have called for war, is that such a policy is unlikely to stop Saddam from
getting nuclear weapons. Once he gets them, so the argument runs, a host of
really bad things will happen. For example, President Bush has warned that
Saddam intends to "blackmail the world"; likewise, National Security Advisor
Condoleezza Rice believes he would use nuclear weapons to "blackmail the
entire international community." Others fear a nuclear arsenal would enable
Iraq to invade its neighbors and then deter the United States from ousting
the Iraqi army as it did in 1991. Even worse, Saddam might surreptitiously
slip a nuclear weapon to al Qaeda or some like-minded terrorist
organization, thereby making it possible for these groups to attack the
United States directly.

The administration and its supporters may be right in one sense: Containment
may not be enough to prevent Iraq from acquiring nuclear weapons someday.
Only the conquest and permanent occupation of Iraq could guarantee that. Yet
the United States can contain a nuclear Iraq, just as it contained the
Soviet Union. None of the nightmare scenarios invoked by preventive-war
advocates are likely to happen. 

Consider the claim that Saddam would employ nuclear blackmail against his
adversaries. To force another state to make concessions, a blackmailer must
make clear that he would use nuclear weapons against the target state if he
does not get his way. But this strategy is feasible only if the blackmailer
has nuclear weapons but neither the target state nor its allies do. 

If the blackmailer and the target state both have nuclear weapons, however,
the blackmailer's threat is an empty one because the blackmailer cannot
carry out the threat without triggering his own destruction. This logic
explains why the Soviet Union, which had a vast nuclear arsenal for much of
the Cold War, was never able to blackmail the United States or its allies
and did not even try.

But what if Saddam invaded Kuwait again and then said he would use nuclear
weapons if the United States attempted another Desert Storm? Again, this
threat is not credible. If Saddam initiated nuclear war against the United
States over Kuwait, he would bring U.S. nuclear warheads down on his own
head. Given the choice between withdrawing or dying, he would almost
certainly choose the former. Thus, the United States could wage Desert Storm
II against a nuclear-armed Saddam without precipitating nuclear war. 

Ironically, some of the officials now advocating war used to recognize that
Saddam could not employ nuclear weapons for offensive purposes. In the
January/February 2000 issue of Foreign Affairs, for example, National
Security Advisor Rice described how the United States should react if Iraq
acquired WMD. "The first line of defense," she wrote, "should be a clear and
classical statement of deterrence-if they do acquire WMD, their weapons will
be unusable because any attempt to use them will bring national
obliteration." If she believed Iraq's weapons would be unusable in 2000, why
does she now think Saddam must be toppled before he gets them? For that
matter, why does she now think a nuclear arsenal would enable Saddam to
blackmail the entire international community, when she did not even mention
this possibility in 2000?

What About Nuclear Handoff?
Of course, now the real nightmare scenario is that Saddam would give nuclear
weapons secretly to al Qaeda or some other terrorist group. Groups like al
Qaeda would almost certainly try to use those weapons against Israel or the
United States, and so these countries have a powerful incentive to take all
reasonable measures to keep these weapons out of their hands.

However, the likelihood of clandestine transfer by Iraq is extremely small.
First of all, there is no credible evidence that Iraq had anything to do
with the terrorist attacks against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon
or more generally that Iraq is collaborating with al Qaeda against the
United States. Hawks inside and outside the Bush administration have gone to
extraordinary lengths over the past months to find a link, but they have
come up empty-handed.

The lack of evidence of any genuine connection between Saddam and al Qaeda
is not surprising because relations between Saddam and al Qaeda have been
quite poor in the past. Osama bin Laden is a radical fundamentalist (like
Khomeini), and he detests secular leaders like Saddam. Similarly, Saddam has
consistently repressed fundamentalist movements within Iraq. Given this
history of enmity, the Iraqi dictator is unlikely to give al Qaeda nuclear
weapons, which it might use in ways he could not control. 

Intense U.S. pressure, of course, might eventually force these unlikely
allies together, just as the United States and Communist Russia became
allies during World War II. Saddam would still be unlikely to share his most
valuable weaponry with al Qaeda, however, because he could not be confident
it would not be used in ways that place his own survival in jeopardy. During
the Cold War, the United States did not share all its WMD expertise with its
own allies, and the Soviet Union balked at giving nuclear weapons to China
despite their ideological sympathies and repeated Chinese requests. No
evidence suggests Saddam would act differently. 

Second, Saddam could hardly be confident that the transfer would go
undetected. Since September 11, U.S. intelligence agencies and those of its
allies have been riveted on al Qaeda and Iraq, paying special attention to
finding links between them. If Iraq possessed nuclear weapons, U.S.
monitoring of those two adversaries would be further intensified. To give
nuclear materials to al Qaeda, Saddam would have to bet he could elude the
eyes and ears of numerous intelligence services determined to catch him if
he tries a nuclear handoff. This bet would not be a safe one.

But even if Saddam thought he could covertly smuggle nuclear weapons to bin
Laden, he would still be unlikely to do so. Saddam has been trying to
acquire these weapons for over 20 years, at great cost and risk. Is it
likely he would then turn around and give them away? Furthermore, giving
nuclear weapons to al Qaeda would be extremely risky for Saddam-even if he
could do so without being detected-because he would lose all control over
when and where they would be used. And Saddam could never be sure the United
States would not incinerate him anyway if it merely suspected he had made it
possible for anyone to strike the United States with nuclear weapons. The
U.S. government and a clear majority of Americans are already deeply
suspicious of Iraq, and a nuclear attack against the United States or its
allies would raise that hostility to fever pitch. Saddam does not have to be
certain the United States would retaliate to be wary of giving his nuclear
weapons to al Qaeda; he merely has to suspect it might. 

In sum, Saddam cannot afford to guess wrong on whether he would be detected
providing al Qaeda with nuclear weapons, nor can he afford to guess wrong
that Iraq would be spared if al Qaeda launched a nuclear strike against the
United States or its allies. And the threat of U.S. retaliation is not as
far-fetched as one might think. The United States has enhanced its flexible
nuclear options in recent years, and no one knows just how vengeful
Americans might feel if WMD were ever used against the U.S. homeland.
Indeed, nuclear terrorism is as dangerous for Saddam as it is for Americans,
and he has no more incentive to give al Qaeda nuclear weapons than the
United States does-unless, of course, the country makes clear it is trying
to overthrow him. Instead of attacking Iraq and giving Saddam nothing to
lose, the Bush administration should be signaling it would hold him
responsible if some terrorist group used WMD against the United States, even
if it cannot prove he is to blame.
Vigilant Containment
It is not surprising that those who favor war with Iraq portray Saddam as an
inveterate and only partly rational aggressor. They are in the business of
selling a preventive war, so they must try to make remaining at peace seem
unacceptably dangerous. And the best way to do that is to inflate the
threat, either by exaggerating Iraq's capabilities or by suggesting horrible
things will happen if the United States does not act soon. It is equally
unsurprising that advocates of war are willing to distort the historical
record to make their case. As former U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson
famously remarked, in politics, advocacy "must be clearer than truth." 

In this case, however, the truth points the other way. Both logic and
historical evidence suggest a policy of vigilant containment would work,
both now and in the event Iraq acquires a nuclear arsenal. Why? Because the
United States and its regional allies are far stronger than Iraq. And
because it does not take a genius to figure out what would happen if Iraq
tried to use WMD to blackmail its neighbors, expand its territory, or attack
another state directly. It only takes a leader who wants to stay alive and
who wants to remain in power. Throughout his lengthy and brutal career,
Saddam Hussein has repeatedly shown that these two goals are absolutely
paramount. That is why deterrence and containment would work.

If the United States is, or soon will be, at war with Iraq, Americans should
understand that a compelling strategic rationale is absent. This war would
be one the Bush administration chose to fight but did not have to fight.
Even if such a war goes well and has positive long-range consequences, it
will still have been unnecessary. And if it goes badly-whether in the form
of high U.S. casualties, significant civilian deaths, a heightened risk of
terrorism, or increased hatred of the United States in the Arab and Islamic
world-then its architects will have even more to answer for.
John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison distinguished service
professor of political science at the University of Chicago, where he
codirects the Program in International Security Policy. He is the author of
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W. W. Norton, 2001). Stephen
M. Walt is the academic dean and the Robert and Renee Belfer professor of
international affairs at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government. He
is faculty chair of the International Security Program at the Belfer Center
for Science and International Affairs and is writing a book on global
responses to American primacy.

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<body lang=3DEN-US link=3Dblue vlink=3Dpurple =
style=3D'tab-interval:.5in'>

<div class=3DSection1>

<p><span class=3Dsubtitle2level1><b><font size=3D2 color=3D"#848442" =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt'>An Unnecessary =
War</span></font></b></span><!-- InstanceEndEditable --><o:p></o:p></p>

<p><span class=3Dsubtitle2level1><b><font size=3D2 color=3D"#848442" =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt'><a
href=3D"http://www.foreignpolicy.com/wwwboard/walts.html"><!-- =
InstanceBeginEditable name=3D"deck" --><span
style=3D'font-weight:normal'>http://www.foreignpolicy.com/wwwboard/walts=
.html</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></font></b></span></p>

<table class=3DMsoNormalTable border=3D0 cellpadding=3D0 width=3D580 =
style=3D'width:435.0pt;
 mso-cellspacing:1.5pt'>
 <tr style=3D'mso-yfti-irow:0'>
  <td width=3D476 rowspan=3D2 style=3D'width:357.0pt;padding:.75pt =
.75pt .75pt .75pt'>
  <p class=3DMsoNormal><b><font size=3D1 color=3D"#666666" =
face=3DArial><span
  =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:#666666;font-weight:bol=
d'>In
  the full-court press for war with =
</span></font></b><st1:country-region><st1:place><b><font
    size=3D1 color=3D"#666666" face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt;font-family:
    =
Arial;color:#666666;font-weight:bold'>Iraq</span></font></b></st1:place>=
</st1:country-region><b><font
  size=3D1 color=3D"#666666" face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt;font-family:
  Arial;color:#666666;font-weight:bold'>, the Bush administration deems =
Saddam
  Hussein reckless, ruthless, and not fully rational. Such a man, when =
mixed
  with nuclear weapons, is too unpredictable to be prevented from =
threatening
  the United States, the hawks say. But scrutiny of his past dealings =
with the
  world shows that Saddam, though cruel and calculating, is eminently
  deterrable.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
  </td>
  <td nowrap style=3D'padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'>
  <p class=3Daddr align=3Dcenter style=3D'text-align:center'><font =
size=3D1
  color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>
  </td>
  <![if !supportMisalignedRows]>
  <td style=3D'border:none' width=3D0><p =
class=3D'MsoNormal'>&nbsp;</td>
  <![endif]>
 </tr>
 <tr height=3D14 =
style=3D'mso-yfti-irow:1;mso-yfti-lastrow:yes;height:10.35pt'>
  <![if !supportMisalignedRows]>
  <td style=3D'height:10.35pt;border:none' width=3D0 height=3D14></td>
  <![endif]>
 </tr>
</table>

<p class=3Dintro><b><font size=3D1 color=3D"#666666" face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt'>By <a
href=3D"http://www.foreignpolicy.com/wwwboard/walts.html#bio#bio"><!-- =
InstanceBeginEditable name=3D"byline" -->John
J. Mearsheimer</a> and <a
href=3D"http://www.foreignpolicy.com/wwwboard/walts.html#bio#bio">Stephe=
n M. Walt</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></font><!-- InstanceEndEditable --></b></p>

<p><font size=3D1 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt'><!-- InstanceBeginEditable =
name=3D"first2para" -->Should
the </span></font><st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
invade =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region> =
and
depose Saddam Hussein? If the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
is already at war with =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
when this article is published, the immediate cause is likely to be
Saddam's failure to comply with the new U.N. inspections regime to the
Bush administration's satisfaction. But this failure is not the real
reason Saddam and the United States have been on a collision course =
over the
past year.<br>
<br>
The deeper root of the conflict is the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
position that Saddam must be toppled because he cannot be deterred from =
using
weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Advocates of preventive war use =
numerous
arguments to make their case, but their trump card is the charge that
Saddam's past behavior proves he is too reckless, relentless, and
aggressive to be allowed to possess WMD, especially nuclear weapons. =
They
sometimes admit that war against =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
might be costly, might lead to a lengthy =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
occupation, and might complicate =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
relations with other countries. But these concerns are eclipsed by the =
belief
that the combination of Saddam plus nuclear weapons is too dangerous to =
accept.
For that reason alone, he has to go. <!-- InstanceEndEditable =
--><o:p></o:p></p>

<table class=3DMsoNormalTable border=3D0 cellspacing=3D0 =
cellpadding=3D0 align=3Dright
 width=3D323 =
style=3D'width:242.25pt;mso-cellspacing:0in;mso-table-lspace:2.25pt;
 =
mso-table-rspace:2.25pt;mso-table-anchor-vertical:paragraph;mso-table-an=
chor-horizontal:
 column;mso-table-left:right;mso-table-top:middle;mso-padding-alt:7.5pt =
7.5pt 7.5pt 7.5pt'>
 <tr style=3D'mso-yfti-irow:0;mso-yfti-lastrow:yes'>
  <td style=3D'padding:7.5pt 7.5pt 7.5pt 7.5pt'><!-- =
InstanceBeginEditable name=3D"ad/art" -->
  <p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-element:frame;mso-element-frame-hspace:2.25pt;
  =
mso-element-wrap:around;mso-element-anchor-vertical:paragraph;mso-elemen=
t-anchor-horizontal:
  =
column;mso-element-left:right;mso-element-top:middle;mso-height-rule:exa=
ctly'><font
  size=3D1 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial;
  color:black'><a =
href=3D"https://www.kable.com/pub/frnp/newsubs.asp"><font
  color=3D"#cc0000"><span =
style=3D'color:#CC0000;text-decoration:none;text-underline:
  none'><img border=3D0 width=3D300 height=3D300 id=3D"_x0000_i1025"
  =
src=3D"cid:image001.gif@01C2BADF.76A05E90"></span></font></a><o:p></o:p>=
</span></font></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
<!-- InstanceEndEditable -->
</table>

Even many opponents of =
preventive war
seem to agree deterrence will not work in Iraq. Instead of invading =
Iraq and
overthrowing the regime, however, these moderates favor using the =
threat of war
to compel Saddam to permit new weapons inspections. Their hope is that
inspections will eliminate any hidden WMD stockpiles and production =
facilities
and ensure Saddam cannot acquire any of these deadly weapons. Thus, =
both the
hard-line preventive-war advocates and the more moderate supporters of
inspections accept the same basic premise: Saddam Hussein is not =
deterrable,
and he cannot be allowed to obtain a nuclear arsenal. 
 
One problem with this argument: It is almost certainly wrong. The =
belief that
Saddam's past behavior shows he cannot be contained rests on distorted
history and faulty logic. In fact, the historical record shows that the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> can contain =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
effectively-even if Saddam has nuclear weapons-just as it contained
the <st1:place>Soviet Union</st1:place> during the Cold War. Regardless =
of
whether =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
complies with U.N. inspections or what the inspectors find, the =
campaign to
wage war against =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
rests on a flimsy foundation. <o:p></o:p>

Is Saddam a Serial =
Aggressor? 
Those who call for preventive war begin by portraying Saddam as a =
serial
aggressor bent on dominating the <st1:place>Persian Gulf</st1:place>. =
The war
party also contends that Saddam is either irrational or prone to =
serious miscalculation,
which means he may not be deterred by even credible threats of =
retaliation.
Kenneth Pollack, former director for gulf affairs at the National =
Security
Council and a proponent of war with =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
goes so far as to argue that Saddam is "unintentionally suicidal." 
 
The facts, however, tell a different story. Saddam has dominated Iraqi =
politics
for more than 30 years. During that period, he started two wars against =
his
neighbors-<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-r=
egion>
in 1980 and =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>
in 1990. Saddam's record in this regard is no worse than that of
neighboring states such as =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Egypt</st1:place></st1:country-region>
or =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Israel</st1:place></st1:country-region>, =
each
of which played a role in starting several wars since 1948. =
Furthermore, a
careful look at Saddam's two wars shows his behavior was far from
reckless. Both times, he attacked because =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
was vulnerable and because he believed his targets were weak and =
isolated. In
each case, his goal was to rectify =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
strategic dilemma with a limited military victory. Such reasoning does =
not
excuse Saddam's aggression, but his willingness to use force on these
occasions hardly demonstrates that he cannot be deterred. =
<o:p></o:p>

The Iran-Iraq War, =
1980-88 
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region> =
was the
most powerful state in the <st1:place>Persian Gulf</st1:place> during =
the
1970s. Its strength was partly due to its large population (roughly =
three times
that of =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>)
and its oil reserves, but it also stemmed from the strong support the =
shah of =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region>
received from the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>.
Relations between =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
and =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region> =
were
quite hostile throughout this period, but =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
was in no position to defy =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
regional dominance. =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region>
put constant pressure on Saddam's regime during the early 1970s, mostly
by fomenting unrest among =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
sizable Kurdish minority. =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
finally persuaded the shah to stop meddling with the Kurds in 1975, but =
only by
agreeing to cede half of the Shatt al-Arab waterway to =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
a concession that underscored =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
weakness. 
 
It is thus not surprising that Saddam welcomed the shah's ouster in =
1979.
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region> =
went to
considerable lengths to foster good relations with =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
revolutionary leadership. Saddam did not exploit the turmoil in =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region>
to gain strategic advantage over his neighbor and made no attempt to =
reverse
his earlier concessions, even though =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region>
did not fully comply with the terms of the 1975 agreement. Ruhollah =
Khomeini,
on the other hand, was determined to extend his revolution across the =
Islamic
world, starting with =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>.
By late 1979, <st1:City><st1:place>Tehran</st1:place></st1:City> was =
pushing
the Kurdish and Shiite populations in =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
to revolt and topple Saddam, and Iranian operatives were trying to =
assassinate
senior Iraqi officials. Border clashes became increasingly frequent by =
April
1980, largely at =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
instigation. 
 
Facing a grave threat to his regime, but aware that =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
military readiness had been temporarily disrupted by the revolution, =
Saddam
launched a limited war against his bitter foe on <st1:date Month=3D"9" =
Day=3D"22"
Year=3D"1980">September 22, 1980</st1:date>. His principal aim was to =
capture a
large slice of territory along the Iraq-Iran border, not to conquer =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region>
or topple Khomeini. "The war began," as military analyst Efraim
Karsh writes, "because the weaker state, =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
attempted to resist the hegemonic aspirations of its stronger neighbor, =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
to reshape the regional status quo according to its own image." 
 
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region> =
and =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
fought for eight years, and the war cost the two antagonists more than =
1
million casualties and at least $150 billion. Iraq received =
considerable
outside support from other countries-including the United States, =
Kuwait,
Saudi Arabia, and France-largely because these states were determined =
to
prevent the spread of Khomeini's Islamic revolution. Although the war
cost =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region> =
far
more than Saddam expected, it also thwarted Khomeini's attempt to =
topple
him and dominate the region. War with =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region>
was not a reckless adventure; it was an opportunistic response to a =
significant
threat. 
 
The =
Gulf War,
1990-91 
But what about =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
invasion of =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>
in August 1990? Perhaps the earlier war with =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region>
was essentially defensive, but surely this was not true in the case of =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>.
Doesn't Saddam's decision to invade his tiny neighbor prove he is
too rash and aggressive to be trusted with the most destructive =
weaponry? And
doesn't his refusal to withdraw, even when confronted by a superior
coalition, demonstrate he is "unintentionally suicidal"? 
 
The answer is no. Once again, a careful look shows Saddam was neither =
mindlessly
aggressive nor particularly reckless. If anything, the evidence =
supports the
opposite conclusion. 
 
Saddam's decision to invade =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>
was primarily an attempt to deal with =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
continued vulnerability. =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
economy, badly damaged by its war with =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
continued to decline after that war ended. An important cause of =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
difficulties was =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s=

refusal both to loan =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
$10 billion and to write off debts =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
had incurred during the Iran-Iraq War. Saddam believed =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
was entitled to additional aid because the country helped protect =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>
and other <st1:State><st1:place>Gulf states</st1:place></st1:State> =
from
Iranian expansionism. To make matters worse, =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>
was overproducing the quotas set by the Organization of Petroleum =
Exporting
Countries, which drove down world oil prices and reduced Iraqi oil =
profits.
Saddam tried using diplomacy to solve the problem, but =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>
hardly budged. As Karsh and fellow Hussein biographer Inari Rautsi =
note, the
Kuwaitis "suspected that some concessions might be necessary, but were
determined to reduce them to the barest minimum." 
Saddam reportedly decided on war sometime in July 1990, but before =
sending his
army into =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
he approached the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
to find out how it would react. In a now famous interview with the =
Iraqi
leader, U.S. Ambassador April Glaspie told Saddam, "[W]e have no =
opinion
on the Arab-Arab conflicts, like your border disagreement with =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>."=

The U.S. State Department had earlier told Saddam that =
<st1:State><st1:place>Washington</st1:place></st1:State>
had "no special defense or security commitments to =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>."=

The <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
may not have intended to give =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
a green light, but that is effectively what it did. 
 
Saddam invaded =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>
in early August 1990. This act was an obvious violation of =
international law,
and the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
was justified in opposing the invasion and organizing a coalition =
against it.
But Saddam's decision to invade was hardly irrational or reckless.
Deterrence did not fail in this case; it was never tried. 
 
But what about Saddam's failure to leave =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>
once the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
demanded a return to the status quo ante? Wouldn't a prudent leader =
have
abandoned =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>
before getting clobbered? With hindsight, the answer seems obvious, but =
Saddam
had good reasons to believe hanging tough might work. It was not =
initially
apparent that the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
would actually fight, and most Western military experts predicted the =
Iraqi
army would mount a formidable defense. These forecasts seem foolish =
today, but
many people believed them before the war began. 
 
Once the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
air campaign had seriously damaged =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
armed forces, however, Saddam began searching for a diplomatic solution =
that
would allow him to retreat from =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>
before a ground war began. Indeed, Saddam made clear he was willing to =
pull out
completely. Instead of allowing =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
to withdraw and fight another day, then U.S. President George H.W. Bush =
and his
administration wisely insisted the Iraqi army leave its equipment =
behind as it
withdrew. As the administration had hoped, Saddam could not accept this =
kind of
deal. 
 
Saddam undoubtedly miscalculated when he attacked =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
but the history of warfare is full of cases where leaders have =
misjudged the
prospects for war. No evidence suggests Hussein did not weigh his =
options
carefully, however. He chose to use force because he was facing a =
serious
challenge and because he had good reasons to think his invasion would =
not
provoke serious opposition. 
 
Nor should anyone forget that the Iraqi tyrant survived the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>
debacle, just as he has survived other threats against his regime. He =
is now
beginning his fourth decade in power. If he is really "unintentionally
suicidal," then his survival instincts appear to be even more finely
honed. 
 
History provides at least two more pieces of evidence that demonstrate =
Saddam
is deterrable. First, although he launched conventionally armed Scud =
missiles
at <st1:country-region><st1:place>Saudi =
Arabia</st1:place></st1:country-region>
and =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Israel</st1:place></st1:country-region>
during the Gulf War, he did not launch chemical or biological weapons =
at the
coalition forces that were decimating the Iraqi military. Moreover, =
senior
Iraqi officials-including Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz and the =
former
head of military intelligence, General Wafiq al-Samarrai-have said that
Iraq refrained from using chemical weapons because the Bush Sr. =
administration
made ambiguous but unmistakable threats to retaliate if Iraq used WMD. =
Second,
in 1994 =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
mobilized the remnants of its army on the Kuwaiti border in an apparent =
attempt
to force a modification of the U.N. Special Commission's (UNSCOM) =
weapons
inspection regime. But when the United Nations issued a new warning and =
the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> reinforced its troops in =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region> =
backed
down quickly. In both cases, the allegedly irrational Iraqi leader was
deterred. 
 
Saddam's Use
of Chemical Weapons 
Preventive-war advocates also use a second line of argument. They point =
out
that Saddam has used WMD against his own people (the Kurds) and against =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region>
and that therefore he is likely to use them against the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region>. Thus, U.S. President George =
W. Bush
recently warned in =
<st1:City><st1:place>Cincinnati</st1:place></st1:City> that
the Iraqi WMD threat against the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
"is already significant, and it only grows worse with time." The =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region>, in other words, is in =
imminent
danger. 
 
Saddam's record of chemical weapons use is deplorable, but none of his
victims had a similar arsenal and thus could not threaten to respond in =
kind. <st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-regio=
n>'s
calculations would be entirely different when facing the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> because =
<st1:State><st1:place>Washington</st1:place></st1:State>
could retaliate with WMD if =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
ever decided to use these weapons first. Saddam thus has no incentive =
to use
chemical or nuclear weapons against the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> and its allies-unless his
survival is threatened. This simple logic explains why he did not use =
WMD
against =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
forces during the Gulf War and has not fired chemical or biological =
warheads at
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Israel</st1:place></st1:country-region>.<=
br>
 
Furthermore, if Saddam cannot be deterred, what is stopping him from =
using WMD
against =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
forces in the <st1:place>Persian Gulf</st1:place>, which have bombed =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
repeatedly over the past decade? The bottom line: Deterrence has worked =
well
against Saddam in the past, and there is no reason to think it cannot =
work
equally well in the future. 
 
President Bush's repeated claim that the threat from =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
is growing makes little sense in light of Saddam's past record, and =
these
statements should be viewed as transparent attempts to scare Americans =
into
supporting a war. CIA Director George Tenet flatly contradicted the =
president
in an October 2002 letter to Congress, explaining that Saddam was =
unlikely to
initiate a WMD attack against any =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
target unless <st1:State><st1:place>Washington</st1:place></st1:State> =
provoked
him. Even if =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
did acquire a larger WMD arsenal, the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> would still retain a massive =
nuclear
retaliatory capability. And if Saddam would only use WMD if the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> threatened his regime, then =
one
wonders why advocates of war are trying to do just that. 
 
Hawks do have a fallback position on this issue. Yes, the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> can try to deter Saddam by
threatening to retaliate with massive force. But this strategy may not =
work
because =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
past use of chemical weapons against the Kurds and =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region>
shows that Saddam is a warped human being who might use WMD without =
regard for
the consequences. 
 
Unfortunately for those who now favor war, this argument is difficult =
to
reconcile with the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>'
past support for =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
support that coincided with some of the behavior now being invoked to =
portray
him as an irrational madman. The United States backed Iraq during the
1980s-when Saddam was gassing Kurds and Iranians-and helped Iraq
use chemical weapons more effectively by providing it with satellite =
imagery of
Iranian troop positions. The Reagan administration also facilitated =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
efforts to develop biological weapons by allowing =
<st1:City><st1:place>Baghdad</st1:place></st1:City>
to import disease-producing biological materials such as anthrax, =
<st1:place>West
 Nile</st1:place> virus, and botulinal toxin. A central figure in the =
effort to
court <st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-regio=
n> was
none other than current U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who was =
then
President Ronald Reagan's special envoy to the <st1:place>Middle =
East</st1:place>.
He visited <st1:City><st1:place>Baghdad</st1:place></st1:City> and met =
with
Saddam in 1983, with the explicit aim of fostering better relations =
between the
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
and =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>. =
In
October 1989, about a year after Saddam gassed the Kurds, President =
George H.W.
Bush signed a formal national security directive declaring, =
"<st1:place>Normal</st1:place>
relations between the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
and =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region> =
would
serve our longer-term interests and promote stability in both the Gulf =
and the <st1:place>Middle
 East</st1:place>." 
 
If Saddam's use of chemical weapons so clearly indicates he is a madman
and cannot be contained, why did the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> fail to see that in the =
1980s? Why
were Rumsfeld and former President Bush then so unconcerned about his =
chemical
and biological weapons? The most likely answer is that =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
policymakers correctly understood Saddam was unlikely to use those =
weapons
against the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
and its allies unless =
<st1:State><st1:place>Washington</st1:place></st1:State>
threatened him directly. The real puzzle is why they think it would be
impossible to deter him today.<o:p></o:p>

Saddam With Nukes 
The third strike against a policy of containment, according to those =
who have
called for war, is that such a policy is unlikely to stop Saddam from =
getting
nuclear weapons. Once he gets them, so the argument runs, a host of =
really bad
things will happen. For example, President Bush has warned that Saddam =
intends
to "blackmail the world"; likewise, National Security Advisor
Condoleezza Rice believes he would use nuclear weapons to "blackmail =
the
entire international community." Others fear a nuclear arsenal would
enable =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region> to
invade its neighbors and then deter the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> from ousting the Iraqi army =
as it did
in 1991. Even worse, Saddam might surreptitiously slip a nuclear weapon =
to al
Qaeda or some like-minded terrorist organization, thereby making it =
possible
for these groups to attack the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
directly. 
 
The administration and its supporters may be right in one sense: =
Containment may
not be enough to prevent =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
from acquiring nuclear weapons someday. Only the conquest and permanent
occupation of =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
could guarantee that. Yet the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
can contain a nuclear =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
just as it contained the <st1:place>Soviet Union</st1:place>. None of =
the
nightmare scenarios invoked by preventive-war advocates are likely to =
happen. 
 
Consider the claim that Saddam would employ nuclear blackmail against =
his
adversaries. To force another state to make concessions, a blackmailer =
must
make clear that he would use nuclear weapons against the target state =
if he
does not get his way. But this strategy is feasible only if the =
blackmailer has
nuclear weapons but neither the target state nor its allies =
do.&nbsp; 
 
If the blackmailer and the target state both have nuclear weapons, =
however, the
blackmailer's threat is an empty one because the blackmailer cannot =
carry
out the threat without triggering his own destruction. This logic =
explains why
the <st1:place>Soviet Union</st1:place>, which had a vast nuclear =
arsenal for
much of the Cold War, was never able to blackmail the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> or its allies and did not =
even try. 
 
But what if Saddam invaded =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>
again and then said he would use nuclear weapons if the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> attempted another Desert =
Storm?
Again, this threat is not credible. If Saddam initiated nuclear war =
against the
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
over =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Kuwait</st1:place></st1:country-region>, =
he
would bring =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
nuclear warheads down on his own head. Given the choice between =
withdrawing or
dying, he would almost certainly choose the former. Thus, the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> could wage Desert Storm II =
against a
nuclear-armed Saddam without precipitating nuclear war. 
 
Ironically, some of the officials now advocating war used to recognize =
that
Saddam could not employ nuclear weapons for offensive purposes. In the
January/February 2000 issue of Foreign Affairs, for example, National =
Security
Advisor Rice described how the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
should react if =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
acquired WMD. "The first line of defense," she wrote, "should
be a clear and classical statement of deterrence-if they do acquire =
WMD,
their weapons will be unusable because any attempt to use them will =
bring
national obliteration." If she believed =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
weapons would be unusable in 2000, why does she now think Saddam must =
be
toppled before he gets them? For that matter, why does she now think a =
nuclear arsenal
would enable Saddam to blackmail the entire international community, =
when she
did not even mention this possibility in 2000? 
 
What =
About Nuclear
Handoff? 
Of course, now the real nightmare scenario is that Saddam would give =
nuclear
weapons secretly to al Qaeda or some other terrorist group. Groups like =
al
Qaeda would almost certainly try to use those weapons against =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Israel</st1:place></st1:country-region>
or the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
and so these countries have a powerful incentive to take all reasonable
measures to keep these weapons out of their hands. 
 
However, the likelihood of clandestine transfer by =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
is extremely small. First of all, there is no credible evidence that =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
had anything to do with the terrorist attacks against the =
<st1:place><st1:PlaceName>World</st1:PlaceName>
 <st1:PlaceName>Trade</st1:PlaceName> =
<st1:PlaceType>Center</st1:PlaceType></st1:place>
and the Pentagon or more generally that =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
is collaborating with al Qaeda against the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region>. Hawks inside and outside the =
Bush
administration have gone to extraordinary lengths over the past months =
to find
a link, but they have come up empty-handed. 
 
The lack of evidence of any genuine connection between Saddam and al =
Qaeda is
not surprising because relations between Saddam and al Qaeda have been =
quite
poor in the past. Osama bin Laden is a radical fundamentalist (like =
Khomeini),
and he detests secular leaders like Saddam. Similarly, Saddam has =
consistently
repressed fundamentalist movements within =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>.
Given this history of enmity, the Iraqi dictator is unlikely to give al =
Qaeda
nuclear weapons, which it might use in ways he could not control. 
 
Intense =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
pressure, of course, might eventually force these unlikely allies =
together,
just as the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
and Communist Russia became allies during World War II. Saddam would =
still be
unlikely to share his most valuable weaponry with al Qaeda, however, =
because he
could not be confident it would not be used in ways that place his own =
survival
in jeopardy. During the Cold War, the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> did not share all its WMD =
expertise
with its own allies, and the <st1:place>Soviet Union</st1:place> balked =
at
giving nuclear weapons to =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>China</st1:place></st1:country-region>
despite their ideological sympathies and repeated Chinese requests. No =
evidence
suggests Saddam would act differently. 
 
Second, Saddam could hardly be confident that the transfer would go =
undetected.
Since September 11, =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
intelligence agencies and those of its allies have been riveted on al =
Qaeda and
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>, =
paying
special attention to finding links between them. If =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
possessed nuclear weapons, =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
monitoring of those two adversaries would be further intensified. To =
give
nuclear materials to al Qaeda, Saddam would have to bet he could elude =
the eyes
and ears of numerous intelligence services determined to catch him if =
he tries
a nuclear handoff. This bet would not be a safe one. 
 
But even if Saddam thought he could covertly smuggle nuclear weapons to =
bin
Laden, he would still be unlikely to do so. Saddam has been trying to =
acquire
these weapons for over 20 years, at great cost and risk. Is it likely =
he would
then turn around and give them away? Furthermore, giving nuclear =
weapons to al
Qaeda would be extremely risky for Saddam-even if he could do so =
without
being detected-because he would lose all control over when and where =
they
would be used. And Saddam could never be sure the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> would not incinerate him =
anyway if it
merely suspected he had made it possible for anyone to strike the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> with nuclear weapons. The =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
government and a clear majority of Americans are already deeply =
suspicious of =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
and a nuclear attack against the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
or its allies would raise that hostility to fever pitch. Saddam does =
not have
to be certain the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
would retaliate to be wary of giving his nuclear weapons to al Qaeda; =
he merely
has to suspect it might. 
 
In sum, Saddam cannot afford to guess wrong on whether he would be =
detected
providing al Qaeda with nuclear weapons, nor can he afford to guess =
wrong that
Iraq would be spared if al Qaeda launched a nuclear strike against the =
United
States or its allies. And the threat of =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
retaliation is not as far-fetched as one might think. The =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> has enhanced its flexible =
nuclear
options in recent years, and no one knows just how vengeful Americans =
might
feel if WMD were ever used against the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
homeland. Indeed, nuclear terrorism is as dangerous for Saddam as it is =
for
Americans, and he has no more incentive to give al Qaeda nuclear =
weapons than
the United States does-unless, of course, the country makes clear it is
trying to overthrow him. Instead of attacking =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
and giving Saddam nothing to lose, the Bush administration should be =
signaling
it would hold him responsible if some terrorist group used WMD against =
the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region>, even if it cannot prove he =
is to
blame.<o:p></o:p>

Vigilant Containment 
It is not surprising that those who favor war with =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
portray Saddam as an inveterate and only partly rational aggressor. =
They are in
the business of selling a preventive war, so they must try to make =
remaining at
peace seem unacceptably dangerous. And the best way to do that is to =
inflate
the threat, either by exaggerating =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
capabilities or by suggesting horrible things will happen if the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> does not act soon. It is =
equally
unsurprising that advocates of war are willing to distort the =
historical record
to make their case. As former U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson =
famously
remarked, in politics, advocacy "must be clearer than truth." 
 
In this case, however, the truth points the other way. Both logic and
historical evidence suggest a policy of vigilant containment would =
work, both
now and in the event =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>
acquires a nuclear arsenal. Why? Because the =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United
 States</st1:place></st1:country-region> and its regional allies are =
far
stronger than =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>.
And because it does not take a genius to figure out what would happen =
if Iraq
tried to use WMD to blackmail its neighbors, expand its territory, or =
attack
another state directly. It only takes a leader who wants to stay alive =
and who
wants to remain in power. Throughout his lengthy and brutal career, =
Saddam
Hussein has repeatedly shown that these two goals are absolutely =
paramount.
That is why deterrence and containment would work. 
 
If the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
is, or soon will be, at war with =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
Americans should understand that a compelling strategic rationale is =
absent.
This war would be one the Bush administration chose to fight but did =
not have
to fight. Even if such a war goes well and has positive long-range
consequences, it will still have been unnecessary. And if it goes
badly-whether in the form of high =
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
casualties, significant civilian deaths, a heightened risk of =
terrorism, or
increased hatred of the <st1:country-region><st1:place>United =
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
in the Arab and Islamic world-then its architects will have even more =
to
answer for.<o:p></o:p>

<p><!-- InstanceBeginEditable name=3D"bio" --><font size=3D1 =
color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:9.0pt'><!-- InstanceEndEditable =
-->J<em><i><font
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-family:Arial'>ohn J. Mearsheimer is =
the R. Wendell
Harrison distinguished service professor of political science at the =
</span></font></i></em></span></font><st1:place><st1:PlaceType><em><i><f=
ont
  face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:Arial'>University</span></font></i></em></st1:Place=
Type><em><i><font
 face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-family:Arial'> of =
</span></font></i></em><st1:PlaceName><em><i><font
  face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:Arial'>Chicago</span></font></i></em></st1:PlaceNam=
e></st1:place><em><i><font
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-family:Arial'>, where he codirects the =
Program in
International Security Policy. He is the author of =
</span></font></i></em>The
Tragedy of Great Power Politics<em><i><font face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:
Arial'> (</span></font></i></em><st1:State><st1:place><em><i><font =
face=3DArial><span
  style=3D'font-family:Arial'>New =
York</span></font></i></em></st1:place></st1:State><em><i><font
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-family:Arial'>: W. W. Norton, 2001). =
Stephen M.
Walt is the academic dean and the Robert and Renee Belfer professor of
international affairs at Harvard's =
</span></font></i></em><st1:place><st1:PlaceName><em><i><font
  face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:Arial'>John</span></font></i></em></st1:PlaceName><=
em><i><font
 face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-family:Arial'> =
</span></font></i></em><st1:PlaceName><em><i><font
  face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:Arial'>F.</span></font></i></em></st1:PlaceName><em=
><i><font
 face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-family:Arial'> =
</span></font></i></em><st1:PlaceName><em><i><font
  face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:Arial'>Kennedy</span></font></i></em></st1:PlaceNam=
e><em><i><font
 face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-family:Arial'> =
</span></font></i></em><st1:PlaceType><em><i><font
  face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:Arial'>School</span></font></i></em></st1:PlaceType=
></st1:place><em><i><font
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-family:Arial'> of Government. He is =
faculty chair
of the International Security Program at the =
</span></font></i></em><st1:place><st1:PlaceName><em><i><font
  face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:Arial'>Belfer</span></font></i></em></st1:PlaceName=
><em><i><font
 face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-family:Arial'> =
</span></font></i></em><st1:PlaceType><em><i><font
  face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:Arial'>Center</span></font></i></em></st1:PlaceType=
></st1:place><em><i><font
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-family:Arial'> for Science and =
International
Affairs and is writing a book on global responses to American =
primacy.</span></font></i></em><o:p></o:p></p>

<!-- InstanceEndEditable -->

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

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